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AFRICA
SURPRISINGLY LEADS THE WAY IN THE
RESURGENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL AND
TOURISM INDUSTRY
By
David J. Saunders
 The
international travel and tourism industry
has shown a remarkable resurgence in 2005
and sustained the sharp upturn that began
in 2004 despite the various tragic events
it had to contend with. In the case of the
African Continent, tourism is among the
top export earners for the majority of
states and is an industry that can
stimulate jobs and earnings across a
multi-sectoral economy. According to
preliminary results obtained from the
World Tourism Organization (WTO) the
number of international tourist arrivals
recorded worldwide grew by 5.5% and
exceeded 800 million for the first time
ever. Although 2005 was certainly a
tumultuous year, international tourism has
fared amazingly well. Despite various
terrorist attacks and natural disasters,
such as the aftermath of the Indian Ocean
tsunami and an extraordinarily long and
devastating hurricane season in the United
States and the Caribbean, tourism's
recovery, which started in 2004, continued
firmly through 2005. Even though the
disruptions experienced definitely left
traces locally in the short-term, they did
not substantially alter the global or
regional traffic flows.
 Based
on detailed results from the WTO the
number of international tourist arrivals
in 2005 is estimated at 808 million, up
from 766 million in 2004. This corresponds
not only to an increase of 5.5%, but also
means a consolidation of the sizeable
growth achieved in 2004 (+10%). Although
growth was more moderate, it is still
almost 1.5 percentage points above the
long-term average annual growth rate of
4.1%. Overall, the tourism sector has
gained substantially in resilience over
the past few years and in spite of the
turbulent environment we live in nowadays,
destinations worldwide added some 100
million international arrivals between
2002 and 2005.
Surprisingly,
Africa led the way in 2005, with growth
estimated at 10%. Growth was stronger in
Sub-Saharan Africa (+13%) with
particularly remarkable results for Kenya
(+26% between January and October compared
with the same period of the previous year)
following an already buoyant 2004, and
Mozambique (+37% January-September). South
Africa (+11% January-August) as well as
the island destinations of Seychelles
(+7%) and Mauritius (+6%), all improved on
their 2004 results. In North Africa growth
continued, but at a more moderate pace,
with Tunisia recording an increase of 8%
between January and November and Morocco
5% for the full year. To further clarify
the progress made by Africa, a summary of
the travel and tourism industry statistics
for the African Continent, in comparison
to the other regions of the world, is as
follows:
Sub-Saharan
Africa
•
The travel and tourism industry of
Sub-Saharan Africa in 2005 is expected to
generate US$73.6 billion of economic
activity with Sub-Saharan Africa's travel
and tourism economy (direct and indirect
impact) in 2005 expected to account for
8.8% of GDP and an estimated 10,647,000
jobs (6.8% of total employment).
Sub-Saharan Africa's travel and tourism
industry is expected to grow 7.9% in 2005
and by 5.8% per annum in real terms,
between 2006 and 2015.
•
In accordance with world ranking,
Sub-Saharan Africa's travel and tourism
economy is ranked tenth in absolute size
worldwide (representing approximately 1.2%
of the world's market share), tenth in
relative contribution to regional
economies, and fourth in long-term
(10-year) growth out of thirteen regions
as estimated by the WTTC.
•
By 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa's travel and
tourism industry is expected to generate
US$147.2 billion with an estimated
14,222,000 jobs (7.2% of total employment)
and a GDP of 9.40%.
•
By 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa's personal
travel and tourism estimate should reach
US$46.0 billion or 6.5% of total
consumption with Sub-Saharan Africa's
business travel estimated to reach US$19.1
billion and Sub-Saharan Africa's capital
investment rising to US$23.3 billion or
12.0% of total capital
investments.
North
Africa
•
The travel and tourism industry in North
Africa in 2005 is expected to generate
US$47.3 billion of economic activity with
North Africa's travel and tourism economy
(direct and indirect impact) in 2005
expected to account for 13.1% of GDP and
an estimated 5,998,800 jobs (12.4% of
total employment). North Africa's travel
and tourism industry is expected to grow
9.0% in 2005 and by 5.5% per annum in real
terms, between 2006 and
2015.
•
In accordance with world ranking, North
Africa's travel and tourism economy is
ranked twelfth in absolute size worldwide
(representing approximately 0.8% of the
world's market share), third in relative
contribution to regional economies, and
sixth in long-term (10-year) growth out of
thirteen regions as estimated by the
WTTC.
•
By 2015, North Africa's travel and tourism
industry is expected to generate US$84.9
billion with an estimated 7,452,600 jobs
(12.5% of total employment) and a GDP of
13.1%.
•
By 2015, North Africa's personal travel
and tourism estimate should reach US$20.9
billion or 7.1% of total consumption with
North Africa's business travel estimated
to reach US$7.0 billion and North Africa's
capital investment rising to US$15.8
billion or 13.3% of total capital
investments.
Following
the very strong performance over the past
couple of years, the Middle East seems to
have entered a more moderate phase of
growth, with the increase for 2005
estimated at 7%. Egypt (+6%), Dubai
(United Arab Emirates) (+7%
January-September) and Jordan (+5%) are
all close to the regional average, while
Bahrain (+11% January-September), Saudi
Arabia (+21% January-June), Israel (+26%
January-October) and Palestine (+45%
January-September, albeit from a small
base) are on their way to exceeding it.
Available data, however, is rather limited
and the picture could certainly still
change. Growth in Asia and the Pacific
averaged 7%, following the exceptional
post-SARS rebound in 2004 (+27%).
North-East Asia (+10%) emerged as the most
dynamic sub-region with the strongest
performers being Taiwan (+15%
January-October), China (+13%
January-November) and Japan (+9%
January-November). In South-East Asia
(+4%), Oceania (+4%) and South Asia (+4%),
overall results were more modest and above
all rather mixed. Cambodia (+35%
January-November), Laos (+27%
January-September), Vietnam (+18%), the
Philippines (+14% January-October) and
India (+13%) nevertheless managed to
report remarkable growth. Among the
countries affected by the December 2004
tsunami tragedy, the Maldives reported a
39% decrease up to November although the
rate of decline has eased in the last
months. Arrivals to Indonesia were down by
nearly 9%, as the country suffered also
from the October Bali terrorist bombing.
Sri Lanka reported only a slight 0.4%
drop, although this result may in part be
attributed to the large number of Sri
Lankan expatriates who visited the country
in the aftermath of the tsunami and to the
flow of aid workers. As for Thailand,
although overall data up to June shows a
6% decline, arrivals at the Bangkok
airport registered 4% growth in the period
through October.
In
the Americas, growth reached 6% with North
America (+4%) and the Caribbean (+5%)
slightly below the regional average. Of
the major destinations, the United States
continued the recovery started in 2004
(+8% January-September), while Mexico (+8%
January-November) and Cuba (+13%
January-November) still showed
above-average increases, even after having
suffered the impact of last year's
devastating hurricanes. Destinations in
Central America (+14%) and South America
(+13%), on the other hand, can look back
on a very positive year. The strongest
growth was reported by Venezuela (+23%)
and Colombia (+22%), while Argentina,
Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Costa Rica,
El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and
Nicaragua all recorded, or were on their
way to record, growth rates of between
10-20%. Europe recorded relatively modest
growth of 4%, which is still one
percentage point above the long-term trend
of the region. This result can be
considered very encouraging given the
rather weak economy in some of its major
intra-regional source markets. Moreover,
due to Europe's already very large base of
over 400 million arrivals, in absolute
terms it recorded the largest increase
corresponding to some 18 million arrivals.
Growth was strongest in Northern Europe
(+7%), boosted by the United Kingdom (+10%
January-November), which was seemingly not
notably affected by the London bombing
attacks. International tourist arrivals in
Southern and Mediterranean Europe
increased by 6% with Turkey being the star
performer in this sub-region with an
increase of 20%, adding 3.4 million
arrivals and passing the 20-million mark.
Furthermore, Spain (+6%), Croatia (+7%
January-November), and Serbia and
Montenegro (+27% January-October) also
recorded respectable results. Western
Europe and Central and Eastern Europe grew
by 2% and 4% respectively. In Central and
Eastern Europe, the Baltic states, Latvia
(+20%), Lithuania (+15% January-September)
and Estonia (+7% January-November) stood
out, while, in Western Europe, the best
results came from Germany (+6%
January-November) and Switzerland (+6%
January-November).
Source
of Statistics: United Nations World
Tourism Organization and World Travel and
Tourism Council
For
the year 2006, the current pattern of
gradually stable growth is expected to
continue. A short-term forecast depicts
international tourist arrivals worldwide
expecting to grow between 4% - 5% in 2006.
Growth is projected to be around one
percentage point lower than in 2005 but
still somewhat above the forecast
long-term annual growth rate of 4.1%. This
outlook is supported by the continued good
shape of the world economy in most parts
of the world and the improved prospects
for the "eurozone economies", in
particular it's most important source
market Germany. However, three major
uncertainties remain for the travel and
tourism industry for 2006. First, it is
likely that global terrorism will continue
to be present and have continued impact on
the travel and tourism industry. However,
experience shows that its impact lately
has been rather limited and short-lived.
Travelers overall have assumed the risk of
terrorism and have been undeterred by
external threats. Secondly, rising energy
prices, inflation and interest rates might
finally change the economic scenario. This
has not been much of a problem until now,
as the price hike has mostly been an
expression of the strong economic growth
and the corresponding demand for energy.
Should this situation continue, especially
with increased anxiety due to escalating
fuel rates, the tourism industry could
start feeling the impact.
Finally,
the further spread of avian flu could be a
serious threat for the tourism sector.
Avian flu has been present in the world
for several years now and it is currently
limited to birds and isolated cases of
people living in very close contact with
infected animals. As yet no transmission
of the virus between humans has been
detected and it is hard to say whether,
when and where such a mutation will occur.
For the moment there is no reason to
change travel plans as long as
recommendations issued by national and
local health and veterinary authorities
are respected. However, the travel and
tourism industry must be prepared for
avian flu. Tourism has to be ready to
participate in the international fight to
contain the effects of avian flu given the
potentially serious threat it poses to the
travel industry. The tourism sector must
be prepared to respond positively to
global community initiatives, while
seeking to minimize exposure through good
planning, informed dialogue and model
response programs. Accordingly, the WTO is
gearing up to play its proper part in this
global response. This will involve working
closely with ministries of tourism and
stakeholders in the private sector and
civil society to build tourism into
national preparedness programs and to send
vital messages throughout the industry's
communications channels.
Despite
current challenges due to political
unrest, economic uncertainty, and the
risks of global pandemics, the travel and
tourism industry had shown incredible
resilience over the past five years of
almost continual crisis - from terrorism
to recession - tracking the annual average
growth forecasts of 4 percent to 5 percent
with remarkable consistency. During this
same period the luxury end of the travel
market had proved to be the most resilient
and the fastest growing segment. Based on
the above statistics and trends, the
African Continent risks missing out on
enormous growth opportunities if it does
not adopt a new strategy to compete in the
growing global tourism market. African
countries must realize and acknowledge
that there is a revolution going on in the
global tourism market: the way that people
travel, where they travel, how they
travel, and their expectations, are all
challenging. In terms of attracting
international visitors, Africa is poised
to compete with other regions of this
emerging marketplace, but only if the
right strategies and decisions are
successfully adopted and
implemented.
According
to industry research, Africa's share of
international travel has continued to grow
since 2000 bringing Africa's market share
to an all time high. As stated previously,
in the case of Africa, tourism is among
the top export earners for the majority of
states, with energy, minerals and
agriculture, and is an industry that can
stimulate jobs and earnings across an
economy. By helping Africa to triple its
tourism export income by 2015 &endash;
compared to the current forecast of
doubling - spending on tourism could also
encourage investment in new
infrastructure, especially in aiding
health and rural improvements. In order to
compete in this global marketplace, there
are three actions that should be adhered
to in order to improve its competitiveness
in the travel and tourism
industry:
•
Make the point for a vacation to the
African continent as a primary choice for
potential travelers by developing a
well-funded, nationally coordinated
destination marketing
campaign;
•
Provide travelers with the path of least
resistance by offering more user-friendly
visa entry requirements, regional
interface of currency exchanges and
consistency with quality of services;
and
•
Encourage more of a priority in the
national economic strategic planning
process perhaps equal to other revenue
generating industries such as energy,
mining and agriculture.
While
the above may appear challenging, there
are a few African countries that have
figured out how to successfully market
themselves, and how to pay for it, through
a realistic budget and commitment to the
travel and tourism industry. It should
also be noted that this tourism growth
strategy should include ongoing input from
the airlines, hotels, restaurants, tour
operators and travel agents in each
African country. In addition,
consideration should also be given to
regionalized initiatives such as
trans-border national parks and regional
visas. Lastly, foreign direct investment
(FDI) is also vital to improving the
capacity and infrastructure of Africa's
travel and tourism industry. This would
take into account such economic elements
as budget applications, funding sources,
marketing targets, implementation
schedules and return on investments. In
conclusion, African nations have become
more actively engaged in formulating and
strengthening their travel and tourism
industries based on a mutual awareness of
the increased importance of one of the
world's largest generator of jobs and
poverty alleviation. Nevertheless, time is
of the essence and while the travel and
tourism industry of Africa has seized the
moment, now is the time to build upon the
foundation for sustaining this
effort.
About
the author: David J. Saunders is the Chief
Executive Officer (CEO) of Venue
International Professionals, Inc. (VIP)
&endash; a full-service travel and tourism
consulting firm based in the Washington
Metropolitan Area that specializes on
customized tours to the African Continent.
He is a member of the Africa Travel
Association (ATA) and has visited and
conducted group tours to twenty-five
African countries over the past eight
years. He is a frequent writer of news and
information articles about the travel and
tourism industry of Africa and received
the Founder's Award in 2005 from the
African Travel Association for his
outstanding contributions to the promotion
of the African travel and tourism
industry. He may be contacted at his
e-mail address: vipinc@erols.com
or telephone (301) 856
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