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COTRI predicts upswing in China Outbound Tourism

September 24, 2009. With the latest figures released by CNTA China National Tourism Administration during an UNWTO tourism conference in Hangzhou/China, COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute predicts a positive development of this source market in the coming months, if swine flu is not turning nasty.

Li Renzhi, Director-General of the Department of Supervision and Management of CNTA, in his presentation during the 5th International Conference on Destination Management organized by UNWTO, CNTA and PATA Pacific Asia Travel Association, announced new figures for the Chinese outbound tourism market from July 2008 to July 2009. The statistics show that the global economic downturn had only a limited impact on the numbers of Mainland Chinese crossing the border. The Swine flu scare however curtailed the recording outbound travels to 3.5 million and less per month in May and June 2009. With the swine flu not resulting in any fatal infection, the figures for July (3.9 million) and especially for August (4.7 million, Source: China Tourism News) are however already indicating a strong rebound.

Li Renzhi predicted for the whole year of 2009 a Zero growth rate for China's outbound tourism. Prof. Dr. Arlt, director of COTRI is however slightly more optimistic: "By listening to the latest market reports from popular destinations for Chinese travellers like Hong Kong, Macao, Thailand and Malaysia during the UNWTO/PATA conference in Hangzhou, all reporting bouncing back to growth in recent months, China should still be able to achieve a positive growth rate for its outbound market in 2009. Travel restrictions to Macao, a major factor in the recent downward trend of Chinese outbound travel, have been eased by the Chinese government. The mood in China is optimistic and vigorous: real estate industry and stock markets are resurging back to their pre-crisis levels; government subsidies, easing of visa procedures and other measures taken by the destinations are all helping to offer the Chinese travellers a good deal in the last quarter of year 2009. A single-digit growth rate for 2009 and a double-digit growth rate for 2010 are likely, if H1N1 is not mutating into a more dangerous form."

Figures make more sense if we translate them properly. The first half of 2009 saw a slightly increase of tourist departures by 1.05% to 22.547 million than that of 2008. If visits to SARs of Hong Kong and Macao are deducted, the number of real Chinese outbound tourists in the first two quarters of 2009 has progressed into 9.16 million, a remarkable 11.5% leap over the same period of 2008.

 The numbers released by CNTA in detail:

Mainland Chinese Outbound border crossings (million)

July 2008 4.202

January 2009 4.312

August 2008 4.162

February 2009 3.678

September 2008 3.717

March 2009 3.982

October 2008 3.905

April 2009 3.901

November 2008 3.729

May 2009 3.517

December 2008 3.817

June 2009 3.157

July 2009 3.948

August 2009 4.649

COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, based in Germany and led by its Director Prof. Wolfgang Georg Arlt is the world's leading independent research institute for research, consulting and quality assessment relating to the Chinese Outbound Tourism market.


COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute,

Sept. 23-25, 2009. Hangzhou, PATA Travel Mart, Booth 5053.

Email: press@china-outbound.com

Tel.: +49 (0) 481 - 85 55 523 (Germany) / +49(0) 177 - 2657 643 (China)

Website: www.china-outbound.com



WTO forecasts big future for China's outbound tourism

Tse says that currently, the top 10 destinations for China's outbound tourists are Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, Russia, Vietnam, Korea, Thailand, the United States, Singapore and Malaysia. He says that according to World Tourism Organization forecasts, China will generate 100 million arrivals, which will rank the country fourth in terms of outbound market size by 2020. This will represent more than 6 percent of the global outbound tourism volume.

"Most studies on China's outbound tourism focus on the consumers-who they are, what they want, how they spend, and so forth," Tse says. "My session at the Seminar on China Hotel & Tourism Development will discuss the importance of socio-economic and political forces shaping the outbound international tourist flows from China, and the interplay of market economy and government control.

China_outboundTop Industry Educator to Conduct Seminar on China's Mushrooming Outbound Tourism

Tony Tse of event co-sponsor Hong Kong Polytechnic University will speak at first-ever U.S.-held Seminar on China Hotel & Tourism Development

NEW YORK: Tony Tse, Program Director of Industry Partnerships at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University's School of Hotel & Tourism Management and an authority on China's rapidly expanding hotel and tourism market, will be one of the featured speakers at the Seminar on China Hotel & Tourism Development, to be held at New York's Le Parker Meridien April 27.

The event is being co-sponsored by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University's School of Hotel & Tourism Management and Hotel Online. It marks the first time the special one-day educational program will be held in the United States.

In his presentation, titled "China's Outbound Market-From the Government's Perspective," Tse will discuss hotel and tourism development in China, with a focus on how the macro-environment in China, including policy and politics, affects outbound tourism.

"Outbound tourism from China is shaped by the emerging market economy as well as state policy and politics, so it is important to have a holistic view of the forces shaping the choices of Chinese visitors," says Tse. "My session will deal with how the U.S. government works with the Chinese government to attract Chinese visitors."

According to Tse, in the mid-1980s the government of China introduced the scheme of "Approved Destination Status," a bilateral arrangement between the Chinese government and foreign destination governments whereby Chinese tourists are permitted to undertake group leisure travel to that destination.

"There are about 100 countries with 'Approved Destination Status,' and the United States is not one of them," Tse says. "But despite this, there are about half a million Chinese visitors who travel to the U.S. each year. The California, Nevada, Texas and Florida tourism offices, for example, have participated in travel-trade shows in China to pave the way for Chinese tourists."


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