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FIRST WTO WORLD TOURISM
BAROMETER SHOWS STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM The results of the new WTO
World Tourism Barometer indicate that international
tourism might be close to a turning point. Although
the world economy is still rather weak,
a change for the better is
expected to take place in the second half of the
year. Initial data for 2003 clearly show the
effects of the Iraq conflict and the SARS outbreak.
Nevertheless, various destinations managed to post
surprisingly good results, in particular, some of
the recently most-afflicted destinations in the
Caribbean, South America, and South Asia. With the
uncertainty due to the geopolitical situation
gradually falling away, the perspective is
switching back towards economic
prospects. One of the innovative
elements of the WTO World Tourism Barometer is its
Panel of Experts. Over one hundred tourism experts
from all over the world consulted during May also
confirmed a more positive outlook for the coming
period. While the panel gave the previous
four-month period, January to April, an average
score of 2.8 (on a scale from 1 to 5), the period
from May to August was rated at 3.6 (a score of 4
meaning "better"). All regions share expectations
of improvement over the four months to come.
Prospects for Europe show a notable improvement,
although the biggest jump is found in the Middle
East. Africa and the Americas were already upbeat
about the past four months and maintain or even
slightly improve their expectations for the coming
four months. The outlook for Asia and the Pacific
clearly reflects the concern over SARS. However, as
the outbreak is virtually under control, prospects
are also expected to improve quickly in
thisregion. According to the
Secretary-General, Mr Frangialli, the optimism
expressed by the WTO Panel of Experts is based on
the expectation of a gradual improvement of the
economic conditions, the reduction of uncertainty
as a result of the relaxation of international
tensions, and the waning of SARS. However, late
reservations and noticeable price sensitivity are
expected to persist as main market
trends. Tourism performance in
2003 The first part of 2003 has
been predominantly a continuation of the 2002
scenario with the long-awaited economic recovery
further delayed because of the prolonged
uncertainty due to the Iraq conflict.
Somedestinations, however, started the year with
considerable growth (e.g Caribbean, Asia, United
Kingdom and South Africa), but mostly compared to
rather depressed levels in the first months of
2002. The start of the war in Iraq in March caused
an immediate plunge in demand, particularly in air
traffic, interregional travel, and travel to
destinations perceived as close to the conflict
zone. Very few destinations and sectors were immune
from this new setback. However, as Mr. Frangialli
stressed, a significant difference was that, this
time around, national tourism administrations,
tourism boards, and tourism businesses were much
better prepared and attempted to adapt quickly to
the changing conditions. Measures primarily
focussed on shifting or reducing capacity and
rigorous cost control. In this respect, the
emergence of SARS was much more unexpected and
disrupted destinations and businesses far more
severely. National tourism administrations (NTAs)
have backed the sector with rapid action plans in
several areas such as communication, promotion and
marketing. Tourism performance by
region Europe: The "wait-and-see"
attitude of consumers, induced by the looming war and by the
economic prospects in most of the
advanced economies, resulted in
declines in the majority of European destinations in early 2003.
With the start of the military intervention in March, most
countries dived into the minus side. Nevertheless, March figures
were also influenced by the fact that
the 2003 Easter holiday -
considered as the start of the tourism
season for many European
destinations - fell in April and not in March as
it did in 2002. With the
disappearance of uncertainty, expectations
for the summer season are
reasonable to good, but with late bookings
and pressure on
prices. Americas: Tourism
performance in the Americas varied
significantly between North America and
the rest of the continent. In
particular, the United States has
obviously been preoccupied with the Iraq conflict, fear of terrorism
and the rather uncertain economic situation. The United
States, Canada, and Mexico suffered
two-digit decreases in March. Many
other destinations in the region also
saw declines in March, but far
less pronounced. The Caribbean is
showing clear signs of resurgence,
although this is not yet shared equally
by all its destinations. With
the significant improvement of the
economic prospects in the Mercosur
countries, particularly Argentina and
Brazil, travel in the region is
picking up. Prospects are evaluated positively by the sector,
due to the fact that the length of the
war was less than expected and
signs of a gradual recovery of the
economic situation in the United
States are emerging. Asia and the Pacific: The
emergence of SARS in the second half of March appears immediately as
the main determinant in the evolution of tourism in Asia in the first
months of 2003, seriously affecting not only the destinations under
the World Health Organization (WHO)
travel advisories, but the majority
of the destinations in the region. The results posted over the
first three or four months of the year
are, almost without exception,
negative and particularly striking in comparison to the region's
outstanding performance in 2002. The
only destinations staying out of
the turmoil are those in South Asia and
in Oceania. The coming months
will definitely still be under the influence of SARS, but with
prospects of improvement as the number
of newly reported cases and
deaths is continuously declining and
travel advisories for most regions
are being lifted. Africa and the Middle East:
Destinations in the Middle East and
North Africa show a rather similar
pattern, obviously reflecting the impact of the war in Iraq. For
example, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt,
Jordan, Qatar, and Lebanon all
started the year with a substantial increase
in January. February followed
with a more moderate increase, while
March is showing sizeable drops.
In April losses were already more
limited, with certain destinations
posting modest increases. All African countries that reported data
for the corresponding months increased
in January and February and
decreased in March. South Africa
maintained the good pulse shown in 2002
(+11%), with an increase of 9% in
January and 7% in February. Even
during the month of March, when most destinations around the
world showed declines induced by the geopolitical tension, the
country only saw a slight decrease of
0.3%. The WTO World Tourism
Barometer - a new project by the WTO Secretariat The WTO World Tourism
Barometer is a new activity of the
Market Intelligence and Promotion
section of WTO aimed at monitoring the short-term evolution of
tourism and providing the sector with
adequate and timely information.
The WTO World Tourism
Barometer is scheduled to be published
three times a year (January, June,
and October). It contains three
permanent elements: an overview of
short-term tourism data from destination countries and air transport,
the WTO Panel of Tourism Experts with a retrospective and
prospective evaluation of tourism performance,
and selected economic data
relevant for tourism. Full version of the first
issue of Barometer can be downloaded from:
www.world-tourism.org More information: World Tourism Organization -
Marketing Intelligence Section barom@world-tourism.org, tel
+34 91 567 82 12 / fax +34 91 567 82 17\ WTO Secretary-
General calls for support of mutual insurance in
airline sector Madrid: World Tourism
Organization Secretary-General Mr Francesco
Frangialli asked governments to fully support the
initiative of a global mutual insurance solution in
the airline sector. In a letter to the ministers of
tourism Mr Frangialli suggested the governments to
respond positively to this proposal created by the
world aviation community through International
Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) through civil
aviation ministries and airlines. "Following the
attacks (on 11 September 2001), insurance companies
threatened to cancel war risk and anti-terrorism
insurance worldwide and whilst that situation was
resolved, the insurance market is unwilling to
reinstate it in a way which gives stability for
airline operations for the future," Mr Frangialli
states in a letter recently sent from the WTO
Headquarters in Madrid, Spain. "This affects all
companies and markets but is of particular
importance to smaller developing markets whose
tourism is entirely dependent on air transport
links." The airline sector, which is
fundamental to the long term development of
tourism, was one of the hardest hit in the recent
tourism crisis. WTO believes the initiative of
ICAO, with the full support of the private sector
through International Air Transport Association
(IATA), would have a broader strategic scope in
demonstrating the importance of the tourism sector
and hence its need for adequate reasonablypriced
air service. For additional information
please contact: In Malawi, the United
Nations Development Program (UNDP) is funding a
$247,000 strategic tourism development plan and a
priority action program to be prepared by WTO . The
project will concentrate on promoting ecotourism
said WTO Regional Representative for Africa Ousmane
Ndiaye. The country's principal
attraction is Lake Malawi, one of the biggest in
Africa, which could be developed as an inland beach
resort area, in conjuction with visits to tribal
villages and national parks. The WTO report, expected by
October, will also assess staffing and training
requirements, including a program for hotel and
catering training. Senegal: By contrast,
Senegal has been developing its tourism since the
early 1970s and is now receiving some half a
million tourists a year. There a $75,000 WTO
project, financed by UNDP, aimed at studying
tourism's impact on the country's economy. "We will
be assessing what new opportunities there are, and
how to improve management to increase the benefits
from tourism said Mr. Ndiaye. With most of the travel
industry run by foreigners, one objective will be
to seek ways for easing bank lending facilities to
enable the Senegalese themselves to play a greater
role. He hopes that cooperatives can be set up to
promote cultural tourism, giving visitors a change
to stay in villages and join in everyday rural
activities. See latest Africa
tourism
forecast on next
page
World
Tourism Organization Global Code of Ethics "With international tourism
forecast to nearly triple in volume in the first 20
years of the next century, we felt that the Code of
Ethics was needed to ensure the sustainability of
our industry," said WTO Secretary-General Francesco
Frangialli. The Global Code of Ethics for Tourism
includes nine articles outlining the 'rules of the
game` for destinations, governments, tour
operators, developers, travel agents, workers and
travellers themselves. The tenth article involves
the redress of grievances through the creation of a
World Committee on Tourism Ethics. For example,
travellers are required to learn about the customs,
health hazards and security risks of countries they
are preparing to visit before departure, while
destinations and tourism professionals are held
responsible for repatriating tourists in the case
of the bankruptcy of a travel service provider.
Investors and public
authorities are required to carry out environmental
impact studies before beginning tourism development
projects and to involve local residents. Other
articles involve the rights of workers in the
tourism industry and the freedom of movement of
people across national boundaries. The code was
developed after extensive consultation with
governments, trade associations, labour unions,
private sector companies and non-governmental
organizations. It marks the first time that a
document of this type will have a mechanism for
enforcement, which will be based on conciliation
through the World. Committee on Tourism
Ethics. "Internet is the perfect
medium for public-private cooperation in tourism
and it is revolutionizing all aspects of the
tourism sector," said Business Council CEO Jose
Luis Zoreda. Delegates also endorsed a new system
for accurately measuring the economic impact of
tourism activity called the Tourism Satellite
Account and urged member nations to begin
implementing the system as a way of raising
awareness about the vital role of tourism in their
national economies. |
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